Hurricane Dorian

In The Early Morning Rain

‘Cause that’s about all we’ve had from this hurricane. But I’m not complaining. The folks in the Bahamas really got hit hard. Dorian was over Abaco and Grand Bahama Island for damn near 24 hours. The islands are devastated. This makes me very sad. I really like Freeport.

But here in #Floriduh, at least in my area, just some rain and wind. But then, isn’t that exactly what a hurricane is? Wind and rain?

So here I sit deep in an undisclosed location in the bowls of a dormant volcano, somewhere in.. uh.. can’t say where. Day 2 in the EOC. Yesterday was long. A full 12 hour shift on about 4 hours sleep. Almost felt like I was back in the Army. Just with air-conditioning. But the same old jokes and lousy food, but no MREs (YEAH!!!).

The storm is about 100 miles due east of us. It only took about 12 hours for it to reach us as it was stationary for a very long time, then slowly moved north west. It has picked up speed, but is still moving very slowly. Current speed estimate is 8 MPH.

No track today, but here is a radar shot;

The western edge of the storm is hitting the coast, but not much.

I should say that we are currently just over halfway through hurricane season. This is the height of the season as well; as this image shows.

That yellow X over the western coast of Africa is out next worry. All the others are not going to bother land, but that storm is still an “unknown”, but it does have a 60% chance of becoming something “known”.

My house, and my brother’s house (he lives about 45 minutes west of me), have not any real issues. He did lose power for about an hour, but luckily bourbon doesn’t need refrigeration, so he made it through just fine.

Right now, our city manager says he hopes to close the EOC around 5 PM this evening, and we’ll return to a more regular schedule tomorrow. Sound good to me.

One thing I noticed on the way in yesterday and today was that almost every fast food place was closed. All the McDonalds, Dunkin’s, and Taco Hell Bell were dark and gloomy. But the Subway was open. Yesterday the local “greasy spoon” was open, but not this morning. Roads are basically clear. Only a few scattered palm fronds here and there.

I picked out a video that actually goes with the topic. I was going to use Gordon Lightfoot’s Early Morning Rain, but choose this one instead. I used Lightfoot’s song for the title (call it a two-for-one). Enjoy!

Some REO Cookies for ya!

Peace,
B

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Still Waiting…

Yes, it’s Labor Day here in the USA, and we are laboring. We haven’t started any painting yet this morning simply because we are worn out. But, all we have left are two little hallways so we have plenty of time.

As far as the storm goes, it’s not much different than yesterday. Hurricane Dorian is still a Cat 5 storm (but the sustained winds have dropped to 165 MPH from 185 MPH) and is still very dangerous. The biggest problem is that it has basically stalled over Grand Bahama Island. The forward movement is down to 1 MPH. Toddlers can crawl faster than that.

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

As of the 5AM (EDT) updates, we don’t expect tropical storm force winds until tomorrow, 3 September, about 0800. Which is when I have to report to the EOC. Let’s hope my truck doesn’t get blown off the road.

This image is from the Weather Underground (again, NOT the 1960’s radical group). This shows the four models for the storm’s track. What is striking about this graph is that all the models have finally come so close together. Just yesterday there was still one model (GFS) that had the storm making landfall, now they’re all offshore. There are still some differences as to just how far offshore.

The GFS track still has it closest to the coast. We’re still hoping the the Euro model holds true.

I’ll make one more pass through the yard this afternoon just to make sure everything is picked up and stored away. Then one more test of the generator and I’m calling prep work done.

My biggest concern this morning is breakfast. I’m hungry!

You knew this one was coming…

Peace,
B

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Hurricane Update…

Bet y’all thought I forgot to post about Hurricane Dorian yesterday. I didn’t forget, we are going ahead with our Labor Day house painting plans, so I was a bit busy.

And just so you know how serious we take this storm, I give you this;

Phase One of the “Fuck Hurricane Dorian” supply run. Which doesn’t show the wine in the fridge. Also not pictured is the beer, because we already drank it.

A quick storm update as I have to get back to painting. It’s looking like the EOC will activated at 0700 tomorrow morning. I should know more this evening.

This is the 5AM forecast track – hot off the electron press;

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

The track has the storm farther east again, and moving at a paltry 8 MPH. My grandmother can move faster than that, and she’s been dead a really long time! This crawl will allow the storm to grow even stronger, and totally messes with the track. Too much time over open water just makes the storm even more unpredictable. Also, it’s not expected to be close to us until Wednesday or so. Hopefully, this means the EOC opening can be pushed back a bit. But, Tropical Storm force winds are expected to be felt here sometime Monday. So who knows.

Here’s today’s “only using this because it has hurricane in the title” video. And yes, I know I’m really stretching it this time.

Peace,
B

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Trying To Reason…

About dinner time last night I received notice that my EOC (Emergency Operation Center) is expected to be activated at 0700 Sunday, 1 September. </sigh>

Now, this morning I see that the track has moved even more south (good for me and my family), but has also slowed down (bad for everyone). If the storm slows down even a little bit this will give it time to gain strength. What was predicted to be a measly cat2, now looks like it may be a much more dangerous cat4. Not to mention, the longer it sits out there the more variation on it’s track. Take a look at the 5 AM (EDT) forecast. The “Cone of Uncertainty” covers the entire damn state of #Floriduh. Due to two high pressure systems to the northeast and northwest of the system which may, or may not, push it around. This also means that there really isn’t anywhere in the state to evacuate to. So, where will it go?

“Nobody knows”

Chuckie Finster ~ Rug Rats.
Note the circle around the entire damn state! It’s a crap shoot I tell ya.

The thing that I’m having issues with (and this is entirely personal), is the planned activation of of the EOC on Sunday morning. I think it’s too early to activate. The storm will still be way east of us on Monday morning. I understand the need to get things in order BEFORE it gets hairy (retired Army guy here). But some of us still have things to do at our residences. Basically, it’s just me and Wifey at home. Son-the-elder is deployed overseas with his Army unit, son-the-younger works damn near every night, and with my broke down back and legs, and Wifey being the “little woman” that she is, we can’t move some of the larger stuff that needs to be moved. Hopefully son-the-younger will be able to do most of it today and tomorrow (he’s supposed to be off of work).

Since we are natives of south #Floriduh (which deserves that hashtag so much more than the rest of the state), we tend to have a somewhat more of a “wait and see” attitude towards these here storms. It’s not that we don’t care, it’s we know they tend to be hyped more than they are. Not always, Andrew, Katrina, and Michael were storms that deserved every bit of the hype. They were monster storms. We treat these events with respect. Meanwhile the rest of the state panics.

It is what it is. So, until my next update, here’s a video that may actually have some bearing on the entire situation (but probably not)..

Peace,
B

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