It now looks like my weather predictions weren’t all that far off. Here, locally, this has been a non-event. We may have received a grand total of 7 minutes of rain since Saturday morning. Wind conditions are at worst, breezy. There were a few gusts yesterday evening and overnight, but not ‘tis nothing.
I’m not trying to downplay this, or any storm. Growing up in South Florida in the 60’s and 70’s, I know how devastating hurricanes can be. I count myself as lucky that we missed this one. It was a Cat1 as it approached, but then dropped down to a strong tropical storm the closer it came to us. As the graphic below shows, wind speed at 0800 (8 AM) was still sustained at 70 MPH. That’s just 5 MPH below a Cat1 hurricane. And we are still under a tropical storm warning since the winds can wrap around the back of the storm and still affect us.
Guess today will be spent moving everything back into the yard that we brought in. Guess there’s worse things we could be doing.
Not much else going on today, so here’s a somewhat relevant video. Enjoy!
It would seem that my meteorological musings were wrong. Nothing new there. The mountains of Hispaniola did not kill the storm, which has grown and become Hurricane Isaias. The predicted track for the storm moves back and forth from hitting the east coast of Florida, to staying offshore. What this means is the more it moves west, the weaker the storm but more impact on my family (as well as my brother’s). If it stays east, then the storm will be stronger but will impact us less. In either case I am again so extremely glad that I don’t work for the city any longer and will not see any EOC duty this time.
According to this map from the NHC & NOAA we have about a 30% chance of getting tropical storm force winds at about 2000 hours (8 PM) tomorrow evening.
We did a quick grocery store run last night, just to make sure we had our supplies if we lose power (again). In 2004 we had three hurricanes hit us. We were without power after the first storm for about 17 days, then another 11 days from the second storm. I will test the generator later today.
Today (1 Aug 2020) marks the day that MTV launched 39 years ago in 1981. The cable system in our little suburb of Miami didn’t carry it. It was several years later that we were living somewhere we could get it without paying for a higher tier package.
A number of years ago we were sitting in a local restaurant that had a DJ playing music. The DJ had some prizes to give away and was asking music trivia questions you had to answer to win the prize. His first question was to name the first video that MTV played. I jumped up, went to the booth and gave him the answer, but I didn’t want the prize. The prize for this question was tickets to a NASCAR race. I am not a race fan. I have no use for tickets to any event like that. When I told him, I didn’t want the tickets, he couldn’t believe it. Why was I in a restaurant in the middle of the tourist area on a race weekend if I wasn’t a race fan? I can’t answer that. But that’s how it happened.
Seems to me that Mars (AKA the red planet) is turning into an interplanetary Club Med. The UAE, China, and now NASA have all sent rockets out that way. I’m thinking that a Motel 8 with an attached Denny’s will be built soon. But we all know that it all comes crashing down on 5 April 2385. What, you don’t watch Star Trek: Picard? Shame on you.
Seems mother nature is at it again. #Floriduh is once again in her sights as a tropical storm is bearing down on us.
But it’s only a tropical storm so us natives don’t get too excited. We just check the battery cabinet, grab another adult beverage and call it a day. Besides this is, as of now, a rather disorganized storm. Not to mention it is expected to cross over Hispaniola and its rather tall mountain range, a known storm killer. As the image show, the current track takes it east of us which means the strongest part of the storm will be on the other side, out in the Atlantic. I am so very happy that I am not working my last job anymore. I would be getting ready for another stay in the lovely EOC if the storm does hit. Tropical storms are anything but predictable, so this may change. Watch this space!
On the genealogy side, I found two cousins that appear to be on the Campbell side! This is most unusual, as I’ve always maintained that my Campbells won’t do a DNA test lest we be connected to a 15th century cattle raid. We Campbells’ aren’t the most trustworthy lot, after all. As both these matches are just beginning their family trees, I can’t yet place them on my tree. Hopefully, they will take my offer to help them get going and we can find our common ancestors. Only time will tell.
I did enjoy the way many of our news outlets stated the testimony of several of our big tech companies had before members of congress yesterday. To paraphrase “Congress to grill tech CEOs”. I offered to bring the charcoal, but nobody took me up on the offer. Their loss.
Things here at the house are changing. Seems that our granddaughters will be here full time. Meaning my thoughts of a “quiet retirement” have been changed. Not that it bothers me. I look forward to having them here to do their remote schoolwork. The tech available at our house is much better than what is available at other family members homes. I will have to get at least a part time job to offset the additional costs that are associated with having two more folks here full time, but in all honesty, I was already looking.
Remember this meme from before the 2016 election?
It’s becoming more and more true. Our “Dear Leader” will not say if he will accept the November election results if he loses, and today floated the idea that the election should be delayed “…until people can properly, securely, and safely vote???”. The “last president” indeed. I do fear a civil war is brewing.
For those of us here in #Floriduh (and I can call it that as a native-born son), our “Dear Leader” Governor Ron DeSantis has spawned several new memes.
I have long referred to him #GovRonDeMoron or #GovRonDeVirus, but #DeathSantis fits so much better. Once we can get rid of him we can go back to being #Florida. Yes, #FloridaMan and #FloridaWoman will still help keep us #Floriduh, provided of course that they survive.
Seems that beers sales are bouncing back. Well, I had nothing to do with that for once. I’ve been avoiding beer as of late, although the growler of Pale Ale son-the-younger brought home from his work last night was very tasty. The main reason I’ve been avoiding beer is the carbohydrates. I am trying to lose weight although at my age that’s neigh on impossible. I’m hoping that even a part time job will get me out of the house enough removing me from the snack box. Whisky on the other hand is a genuinely nice substitute.
Wifey and I are ready to go back to Scotland. Who’s with us??
Have to figure out where all the coffee is going. It seems we are buying bags and bags of beans every week. You don’t think my being home all day has anything to do with it, do you? Nah…
Finally, get out and #VOTE. Yes, I’m talking to you. I’m not going to tell you who to vote for, nor ask you who you did vote for. I will ask you if you plan on voting. I will vote via mail this year. Having been in the military for so long it seems second nature to me. Plus, I hate standing in line for anything!
I realize that stories of #FloridaMan and #FloridaWoman are all over the place, and that my home state has a bad rap. But what did we do to piss off Mother Nature this time?
Maybe it’s just me. We moved back to #Floriduh in 1996. 1997 was the year of wildfires. We were evacuated from our house (which we had just moved into) 3 times. In all truth, my yard still hasn’t fully recovered. Then in 2004 it was the year of 4 hurricanes.
Ivan was probably the most powerful of the 4, but it didn’t come near us. Charley, on the other hand, went directly overhead. But it wasn’t all that powerful. Son-the-elder’s FLANG unit was deployed basically the entire summer doing hurricane relief all over the state. He had his picture in many local newspapers. They also provided relief for hurricanes Katrina and Michael, and probably more that I can’t recall right now.
We are not under any serious danger with “#9” just off the coast. It is expected to become a named storm “Humberto” sometime in the next 24 – 36 hours. The current track has it just off the coast, following in Dorian’s footsteps. As of this writing, no EOC activation has been discussed.
And the models have it moving further off shore, again, just like Dorian.
Luckily we had no big plans this weekend. Our god sons first birthday is today, and there’s plans for a small party tomorrow, and some wind and rain won’t bother that. Hopefully.
Since we are looking at yet another rainy weekend (Sunshine State?? I call shenanigans). Here’s a video about another rainy season. Enjoy! (And sing along too)
‘Cause that’s about all we’ve had from this hurricane. But I’m not complaining. The folks in the Bahamas really got hit hard. Dorian was over Abaco and Grand Bahama Island for damn near 24 hours. The islands are devastated. This makes me very sad. I really like Freeport.
But here in #Floriduh, at least in my area, just some rain and wind. But then, isn’t that exactly what a hurricane is? Wind and rain?
So here I sit deep in an undisclosed location in the bowls of a dormant volcano, somewhere in.. uh.. can’t say where. Day 2 in the EOC. Yesterday was long. A full 12 hour shift on about 4 hours sleep. Almost felt like I was back in the Army. Just with air-conditioning. But the same old jokes and lousy food, but no MREs (YEAH!!!).
The storm is about 100 miles due east of us. It only took about 12 hours for it to reach us as it was stationary for a very long time, then slowly moved north west. It has picked up speed, but is still moving very slowly. Current speed estimate is 8 MPH.
No track today, but here is a radar shot;
I should say that we are currently just over halfway through hurricane season. This is the height of the season as well; as this image shows.
My house, and my brother’s house (he lives about 45 minutes west of me), have not any real issues. He did lose power for about an hour, but luckily bourbon doesn’t need refrigeration, so he made it through just fine.
Right now, our city manager says he hopes to close the EOC around 5 PM this evening, and we’ll return to a more regular schedule tomorrow. Sound good to me.
One thing I noticed on the way in yesterday and today was that almost every fast food place was closed. All the McDonalds, Dunkin’s, and Taco Hell Bell were dark and gloomy. But the Subway was open. Yesterday the local “greasy spoon” was open, but not this morning. Roads are basically clear. Only a few scattered palm fronds here and there.
I picked out a video that actually goes with the topic. I was going to use Gordon Lightfoot’s Early Morning Rain, but choose this one instead. I used Lightfoot’s song for the title (call it a two-for-one). Enjoy!
Yes, it’s Labor Day here in the USA, and we are laboring. We haven’t started any painting yet this morning simply because we are worn out. But, all we have left are two little hallways so we have plenty of time.
As far as the storm goes, it’s not much different than yesterday. Hurricane Dorian is still a Cat 5 storm (but the sustained winds have dropped to 165 MPH from 185 MPH) and is still very dangerous. The biggest problem is that it has basically stalled over Grand Bahama Island. The forward movement is down to 1 MPH. Toddlers can crawl faster than that.
As of the 5AM (EDT) updates, we don’t expect tropical storm force winds until tomorrow, 3 September, about 0800. Which is when I have to report to the EOC. Let’s hope my truck doesn’t get blown off the road.
This image is from the Weather Underground (again, NOT the 1960’s radical group). This shows the four models for the storm’s track. What is striking about this graph is that all the models have finally come so close together. Just yesterday there was still one model (GFS) that had the storm making landfall, now they’re all offshore. There are still some differences as to just how far offshore.
I’ll make one more pass through the yard this afternoon just to make sure everything is picked up and stored away. Then one more test of the generator and I’m calling prep work done.
My biggest concern this morning is breakfast. I’m hungry!
Bet y’all thought I forgot to post about Hurricane Dorian yesterday. I didn’t forget, we are going ahead with our Labor Day house painting plans, so I was a bit busy.
And just so you know how serious we take this storm, I give you this;
A quick storm update as I have to get back to painting. It’s looking like the EOC will activated at 0700 tomorrow morning. I should know more this evening.
This is the 5AM forecast track – hot off the electron press;
The track has the storm farther east again, and moving at a paltry 8 MPH. My grandmother can move faster than that, and she’s been dead a really long time! This crawl will allow the storm to grow even stronger, and totally messes with the track. Too much time over open water just makes the storm even more unpredictable. Also, it’s not expected to be close to us until Wednesday or so. Hopefully, this means the EOC opening can be pushed back a bit. But, Tropical Storm force winds are expected to be felt here sometime Monday. So who knows.
Here’s today’s “only using this because it has hurricane in the title” video. And yes, I know I’m really stretching it this time.
About dinner time last night I received notice that my EOC (Emergency Operation Center) is expected to be activated at 0700 Sunday, 1 September. </sigh>
Now, this morning I see that the track has moved even more south (good for me and my family), but has also slowed down (bad for everyone). If the storm slows down even a little bit this will give it time to gain strength. What was predicted to be a measly cat2, now looks like it may be a much more dangerous cat4. Not to mention, the longer it sits out there the more variation on it’s track. Take a look at the 5 AM (EDT) forecast. The “Cone of Uncertainty” covers the entire damn state of #Floriduh. Due to two high pressure systems to the northeast and northwest of the system which may, or may not, push it around. This also means that there really isn’t anywhere in the state to evacuate to. So, where will it go?
Chuckie Finster ~ Rug Rats.
The thing that I’m having issues with (and this is entirely personal), is the planned activation of of the EOC on Sunday morning. I think it’s too early to activate. The storm will still be way east of us on Monday morning. I understand the need to get things in order BEFORE it gets hairy (retired Army guy here). But some of us still have things to do at our residences. Basically, it’s just me and Wifey at home. Son-the-elder is deployed overseas with his Army unit, son-the-younger works damn near every night, and with my broke down back and legs, and Wifey being the “little woman” that she is, we can’t move some of the larger stuff that needs to be moved. Hopefully son-the-younger will be able to do most of it today and tomorrow (he’s supposed to be off of work).
Since we are natives of south #Floriduh (which deserves that hashtag so much more than the rest of the state), we tend to have a somewhat more of a “wait and see” attitude towards these here storms. It’s not that we don’t care, it’s we know they tend to be hyped more than they are. Not always, Andrew, Katrina, and Michael were storms that deserved every bit of the hype. They were monster storms. We treat these events with respect. Meanwhile the rest of the state panics.
It is what it is. So, until my next update, here’s a video that may actually have some bearing on the entire situation (but probably not)..
Faithful readers of this blog will know that my last post mentioned a certain tropical storm was headed my way. Well, that hasn’t changed. In fact since I wrote (and edited) that post, lots of things have changed. And then changed again. And changed some more. Some things even went back to what they were at the start of this whole shebang.
Here was the storm track then;
And here is this morning’s track (as of 0800 EDT);
Yes! Once again #Floriduh is dead in the sights of another hurricane. Sheesh!
On the plus side, it’s expected (more like hoped for) to be less intense than just yesterday’s models. Those had it as a Category 3 storm and sitting about 100 miles due east of my house Monday morning. Now it will (again, hopefully) make land fall about 100 miles south of me as a weak Cat 2. This, sadly, will mean my brother can expected an almost direct hit.
On the bad side is most models have it turning north once it hits the center of the state. This has two issues. First, it puts my area on that dreaded NE quadrant again. That will be the most intense section of the storm. Second, this will be my home for the weekend;
For this storm my team has been assigned the day shift. We’ve been night shift for all previous storms. My guess for this change is because the last two storms the day shift has been stuck at the EOC for 24 hours when the storm hit, while those of us on nights just did the planned 12 hour shift. I think my manager is hoping to reverse this trend. Not gonna happen.
So, once again, a storm has ruined plans for a 3-day weekend. Now granted, this was a “working” 3-day weekend as we had planned to start painting the inside of the house. We may still be able to get some of the work done, at least the major prep stuff. But if it’s raining too hard painting is out of the question. Paint doesn’t seem to dry very well when the humidity is 1000%.
So here’s a video that only relates to the post because I used it’s title for the title of this post…
I won’t go into climate change much here, other than to say I do believe that things are changing much faster than expected. The fires in the Arctic coupled with the fires in the Amazon River basin tell you that things aren’t quite right with dear ol’ mother nature. Add to that the fact that the American Pacific Northwest has not received anywhere near the proper amount of rain this summer. This means that the salmon runs are not happening. The rivers are too low for the salmon to swim upstream to spawn, and the water temperature is too warm and it’s killing the fish, not just salmon. (One source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/half-of-columbia-river-sockeye-salmon-dying-due-to-hot-water/ar-AAdxQ7H). There is a counter report that the fish kill was due to a “harvesting” accident (https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6854150153), so I’m not which to believe.
Much closer to home, it’s hurricane season. Nothing out of the ordinary, it happens every year. At the moment there are two systems in the Atlantic Ocean. One is actually over south Florida, but it isn’t expected to be too big of deal. Just some rain and wind. It’s that red circle “Five” that needs watching.
Number 5 is far away from Floriduh. This means two basic things. First, it has time to grow. How strong a hurricane it can become is anyone’s guess right now. Second, it could go anywhere. It maybe, just might, turn north and just spin out in the Atlantic and only give the shipping industry problems. Or, it might just set its sights on my house and head here, building up to a category 11 storm. (NOTE: Currently the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale “only” goes to 5, but I like to turn things up to 11 when I can. Link requires Flash enabled, sorry.) Not to mention that now that we have the kitchen wall fixed, it’s time to start repairing the whole house. Everything from repainting to tiling. I ain’t got no time for no damn hurricane.
Even the wonderful folks at Weather Underground (not the 60’s radical group) haven’t got much of a clue. In the past 5 years or so the European model has been the most accurate, it’s too early for them to have modeled this storm.
If number 5 becomes a named storm (Dorian is the next name on the list), then things get a little more real. As a member of my employers “Emergency Operations Staff”, I can get called in at any time the storm is expected to threaten my area. And that’s not fun. But it is necessary.
EDITORS NOTE: While I was composing this post, the storm became Tropical Depression Dorian. No, I am not psychic (psychotic maybe), I’ve just been around tropical storms too long.